A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz near Iran could push crude oil prices above $100 a barrel, according to research firm Wood Mackenzie.

The firm said the strait has been shut amid heightened war tensions in West Asia. If the disruption persists for an extended period, the supply risk could lift benchmark prices to the $100 level.

Wood Mackenzie noted that about 15% of the world’s oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz, along with around 20% of global liquefied natural gas shipments. Oil prices have already risen after three vessels near the strait were attacked.

The key question now is when export vessels will be allowed to pass through the strait again. The report added that higher freight container charges and insurance costs could ultimately be reflected in the final price of oil.