A CareEdge report said a war-driven disruption that pushes Iran out of the international oil market is unlikely to create a global crude oil shortage, citing ample inventories and an expected supply surplus.
According to the report, Iran produces about 3.5 million barrels of crude oil per day, accounting for roughly 4% of global oil supply in 2025. It noted that international oil inventories stood at around 8.5 billion barrels in 2025.
CareEdge projected that production would exceed consumption in 2026 and 2027. With an existing global oversupply, the report said the market could absorb the loss of Iranian barrels, helping contain price spikes driven by geopolitical tensions.
However, the report flagged risks around the Strait of Hormuz, a key route through which about 20 million barrels per day are transported. If the route is blocked, alternative pipelines can carry only about 4.2 million barrels per day, leaving a significant volume at risk of disruption.
It also pointed to past events such as the twin tower attack, the Iraq war, the Israel–Hamas war and the Russia–Ukraine war, which caused sharp oil price swings. Even so, it said the current level of surplus inventories reduces the likelihood of a global crude shortage.
