Meteorologists have warned that a rare “Super El Niño” event—said to be forming after nearly 50 years—could affect India’s rainfall patterns and water availability, including for Tamil Nadu.
El Niño refers to unusual warming in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean, while La Niña indicates cooler-than-normal conditions. With the current La Niña weakening, the India Meteorological Department has noted the possibility of El Niño developing this year, along with potential changes in the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
Volunteer weather observer Hemachandar said El Niño conditions are expected to emerge during October–November. In a typical El Niño, sea-surface temperatures may rise up to about 1.5°C, but a “Super El Niño” could push warming to around 3°C.
He added that such warming may also increase temperatures along the equatorial Indian Ocean belt—from near Sumatra to Somalia—under the IOD pattern. If the event forms in Oct–Nov this year, rainfall during the southwest monsoon could drop significantly from next year, affecting water inflows to Tamil Nadu and raising the risk of drought-like conditions in multiple states.
At the same time, he said the northeast monsoon could see very heavy rainfall—comparable to 2015 levels—and that drought impacts may intensify for several years starting from 2027.
