Dinamalar and Chanakya Digital Media conducted a two-phase opinion survey in March and April, based on in-person responses collected by reporters across Tamil Nadu. The first phase covered 19,305 respondents (March 23–30) and the second phase 25,691 respondents (April 14–18), drawing views from varied age groups, genders, communities and locations ranging from villages to cities.
Reviewing both phases together, the survey indicates a very close contest between the AIADMK-led and DMK-led alliances. It suggests that many constituencies could see razor-thin margins, and that it would not be surprising if both fronts end up with nearly similar seat tallies.
The report also lists possible limitations, including the chance of individual-level bias among field workers, the risk of leading questions, over-representation of like-minded respondents, and a potential “enthusiasm bias” due to higher participation from younger voters.
Based on respondents’ recall of past voting, the survey notes that those claiming to have voted for the DMK alliance in the 2024 Lok Sabha election are lower than the alliance’s earlier vote shares, and that a similar decline is seen for parties in the current AIADMK alliance compared with their earlier performance. It also observes that first-time voters—estimated at 14.60 lakh, about 2.50% of the electorate—appear over-represented in the sample, which could make support for Vijay’s party look higher.
In its overall reading, the survey estimates anti-incumbency at around 12–14%. It suggests the DMK alliance could lose 12–14 percentage points compared with 2021, while the AIADMK alliance could also see a drop versus 2021, and that the direction of the final outcome may depend on how much vote-splitting occurs in each constituency due to Vijay’s presence.
