Chennai: Post-election surveys released under the banner of “exit polls” have come under sharp scrutiny after the Tamil Nadu Assembly results diverged widely from most projections.
Several agencies—including Peoples Pulse, Matrise, B-Mark and Chanakya—had broadly forecast a comfortable majority for the DMK-led alliance, estimating around 125–135 seats. The same set of surveys projected the AIADMK-led alliance at roughly 75–85 seats, while placing TVK in the 11–21 range.
One agency, Vote Vibe, offered a different picture, projecting the DMK-led alliance at 103–113 seats and the AIADMK-led alliance at 114–124 seats, with TVK at 4–10 seats. In contrast, Axis My India predicted the DMK-led alliance at 92–110 seats, the AIADMK at 22–32 seats, and TVK at 98–120 seats.
The final results announced on Monday showed the DMK-led alliance winning 73 seats, the AIADMK-led alliance 53 seats, and TVK 108 seats. While Axis My India’s estimate for TVK aligned broadly with the outcome, its projections for the other parties did not match the results.
With most exit poll forecasts proving inaccurate, the outcome has once again highlighted the limits of surveys in capturing voters’ final choices.
