The Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC), Chennai, has released a district-wise forecast indicating the possibility of heavy rain in parts of Tamil Nadu up to October 19. The bulletin notes that conditions are becoming favourable for the Northeast Monsoon to begin over the southern parts of south Indian states, while the Southwest Monsoon is likely to withdraw from the remaining parts of the country over the next two days.

According to the RMC, an upper-air cyclonic circulation is prevailing over the southwest Bay of Bengal off the south Sri Lanka coast, extending up to about 3.1 km above sea level. On October 13, moderate rain with thunder and lightning may occur over Chennai, Chengalpattu, Tiruvallur, Cuddalore, Villupuram, Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, Nagapattinam, Mayiladuthurai, Pudukkottai, Ramanathapuram, Tirunelveli, Thoothukudi, Kanniyakumari, Puducherry and Karaikal, while light rain is likely in other districts.

For October 14, heavy rain with thunder and lightning is likely over Ramanathapuram, Thoothukudi, Tirunelveli and Kanniyakumari. Moderate rain with thunder and lightning may occur over Tiruvallur, Chennai, Chengalpattu, Villupuram, Cuddalore, Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, Mayiladuthurai, Nagapattinam, Pudukkottai, Nilgiris, Coimbatore, Tiruppur, Theni, Dindigul, Tenkasi, Virudhunagar, Kallakurichi, Perambalur, Ariyalur, Puducherry and Karaikal.

From October 15 to 18, the heavy-rain risk shifts across several interior and delta districts, including hill areas of Tenkasi and Tirunelveli, and districts such as Kanniyakumari, Madurai, Dindigul, Tiruppur, Coimbatore, Nilgiris, Erode, Salem, Namakkal, Karur, Tiruchirappalli, Perambalur, Ariyalur, Pudukkottai, Nagapattinam, Thanjavur and Tiruvarur, as listed in the daily outlook.

On October 19, heavy rain with thunder and lightning and strong winds (40–50 kmph) may occur over Dindigul, Tiruchirappalli, Karur, Ariyalur, Perambalur, Tiruvannamalai, Vellore, Ranipet, Kancheepuram, Krishnagiri, Dharmapuri, Erode, Tirupathur, Namakkal, Salem, Coimbatore, Nilgiris and Thanjavur, the RMC said.